Ecology and Biodiversity

The RADOST topic “Ecology and Biodiversity” focuses on the ecological development of the natural environment of the German Baltic Sea in relation to climate change. Using data records on Baltic Sea benthic macrofauna communities that span 15 years, as well as established climate models this project will, for the first time, evaluate small-scale, climate-induced changes to the species composition, biodiversity and capacity of the German Baltic Sea ecosystem. The work in this sub-module will provide the knowledge and basis for discussions on the focus topic “Conservation and Land use”.

Figure: Typical ground organism communities found in the Bay of Wismar with mudflat area, macrophytic zone (within the light flooded zone and the adjacent solid ground range), mussel bank, as well as characteristic animal communities of the sediment surface (epibenthos) and animals that live in the substrate (infauna).

Click here or on the picture for a large version (JPEG, 2.7 MByte).

Modifications to abiotic environmental parameters such as water current, salinity, oxygen concentration, nutrient input and water temperature will have unknown consequences for the marine life of the Baltic Sea coast.

Drawing on time series data from over 4.500 with time series plots including almost 11,500 replicated samples of Baltic Sea fauna, changes in species composition and regional plant and animal community structures (see illustration) under different environmental conditions over the past 15 years will be analysed. The aim is to understand typical reactions of the marine biota to climate-induced environmental changes. The modelled environmental scenarios from the RADOST sub-module “Hydrodynamics and sediment transport” will then be used to assess possible developments in species composition (including invasive species), biodiversity and ecosystem function on the German Baltic coast.

Due to numerous meteorological and hydrological interactions, local and regional climatic changes may have consequences for the entire Baltic ecosystem, e.g., altered species composition, animal migration patterns and trophic relationships. Therefore, the aim of this project is to assess large-scale impacts on the basis of existing data in order to define future research demands.

Finally, recommendations for environmental planning will be made based on the synthesis of our findings. Currently unique to the analysis are the fine spatial resolution and vast quantity of biological data that is entered into the biological forecast models.