Agricultural sector modeling

Agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors in the German Baltic Sea region and will be particularly affected by the consequences of climate change. The impact of changing climatic conditions on agricultural production and agricultural nutrient loads into water bodies is simulated by the agricultural sector model RAUMIS by the Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institute (vTI). Firstly, the analysis focuses on the agricultural sector’s potential for adaptation to climate change and the effects this would have on income and employment. Secondly, it proposes options for reducing the negative environmental impacts of agricultural production — especially with regard to water quality — which may become more serious in the future due to climate change. The anticipated results will reflect the impact on regional agricultural production (land use, crop yields, livestock, fertilizers, pesticides and machinery use) as well as the impact on regional farm income, employment and environmental effects. The results will be integrated into the regional input-output analysis of IÖW. The nutrient balances will be transferred to the MONERIS Model of IGB. The results of the agricultural sector modeling will thus contribute to the Modelling of Nutrient Loads within the module “Natural science and engineering research” and to the focus issue “Water Management and Agriculture”. Furthermore, an implementation project to analyze the development of adapted crop species is in progress, in cooperation with the KWS Saat AG. In the focus issue “Renewable Energies”  the development of the agricultural sector and its influence on the energy exploitation of biomass will be analyzed.